Another month, another update from the Climate Prediction Center and, this time, the agency’s odds of an enduring and “very strong” El Niño are climbing even higher.
The climate phenomenon, which can impact weather around the world and how a given winter shakes out, first arrived in June.
Now, the CPC expects it to grow in strength with a 97% chance it lasts through early spring 2027.
The forecasted peak is between October and December, with an 81% chance that this El Niño meets “very strong” criteria during that period, ranking as one of the strongest El Niños dating back to 1950, according to the agency.
Forecasters and policy makers are watching closely. The rapidly strengthening El Niño “will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said World Meteorological Organization (WMO) secretary general Celeste Saulo in a statement earlier this month.
She added that the WMO community launched an “unprecedented mobilization” effort to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors.
“Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” Saulo said.
In North America, El Niño typically boosts the subtropical jet, making for a more active storm track across the southern U.S. On the flip side, El Niño tends to set the stage for warmer and, in some places, drier weather up north. For skiers, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast U.S. might be places to watch, with more moisture than usual.
NWS
It is only July, though. And the CPC noted that while stronger events can “more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,” even the strongest El Niño events don’t lead to those outcomes everywhere.
For instance, during the 2015-16 ski season, a historically strong El Niño didn’t drop the anticipated rainfall on southern California. Other patterns beyond El Niño can also shape how winter looks, even as meteorologists consider El Niño and its sibling, La Niña, valuable long-term forecasting tools.
“We have an idea that we’re going to see some pretty significant anomalies,” said Chris Tomer, a meteorologist popular among skiers, in a recent video about El Niño. “Are they widespread anomalies, or are they more isolated and localized? That’s a big difference.”
He also wondered about the temperature—big storms don’t mean much for the snow pack if they only produce rain.
“Will it be too warm to snow in some areas? Will the influx of warm air be too much? Those are the questions I’m left with,” Tomer said.
